The world is making the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy, and yet global production of LNG is forecasted to increase in the coming years. In fact, despite being a fossil fuel, it is expected to play a key role in decarbonizing multiple industries.
It is estimated that by 2040, global demand for LNG (liquefied natural gas) will reach between 625-685 million tonnes per year (up from 404 million tonnes in 2023) – a rise by more than 50%. The growth in demand is expected to come from multiple industries including manufacturing, heavy-industry, power generation and transportation.
While LNG is a fossil fuel, it is less harmful than many other fossil fuels. For example, the emissions generated per unit of energy for LNG are far lower than coal, both before and during combustion. In the short term, this enables significant carbon reductions and makes it a cleaner alternative. For this reason, the global consultancy firm McKinsey & Company believes that natural gas (and by extension LNG) will be more resilient than other fossil fuels in the next five to ten years and will be amongst the last of the fossil fuels to be replaced.
For example, China – which is driving much of the global demand for LNG – is pushing for a transition away from coal in favor of LNG in order to meet its climate ambitions as well as improve air quality in its cities.
The short answer is yes. Multiple manufacturers of gas-powered trucks have calculated that they emit around 15-20% fewer CO emissions compared to diesel. This is less than the potential reductions made possible by battery electric trucks, the reality is that limited range and recharging networks mean that electric is currently not a viable option for many transport companies, but it might be in the future. Gas-powered trucks on the other hand, offer the same range and performance as diesel.
Consequently, the refueling network for LNG trucks across Europe is growing rapidly and at the time of writing, is at 786 stations. Meanwhile, sales of LNG trucks in China are surging – again, as the Chinese government subsidizes a transition away from diesel. India is following suit, aiming to convert one third of the country’s heavy-duty truck fleet to LNG in the next 5-7 years.
While LNG is a great step in the right direction, it is the transition to bio-LNG that will make the difference. This is a non-fossil, renewable fuel produced using organic waste, and depending on how it is produced can generate negative CO2 emissions of up to 200% (well-to-wheel).
In the shipping industry, an LNG-fueled vessel emits up to 23% fewer greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional marine fuels. And as is the case with heavy-duty trucks, LNG-vessels and refueling infrastructure are fully compatible with bio-LNG, thus opening up a pathway to decarbonization. For this reason, it is being seen as a potential transitional fuel in the shipping industry as well.
To learn more about LNG and bio-LNG, and the potential of gas-powered trucks, you might be interested in reading: